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Despite high interest rates, M&A activity continues. Will rate cuts spur more?
By: Sean Moloughney
August 2, 2024
Interest rates remain at a 20-year high as the Federal Reserve indicated in July that it might be willing to lower rates in September. Mergers, acquisitions, and financing in the nutrition world has continued, albeit at a slower pace than the era of “cheap money” that followed the 2008 financial crisis. Scott Steinford, founder of Trust Transparency Consulting, compared VMS M&A activity and financing to the housing market. While deals are still taking place, it typically takes more work to “make the magic happen.” “The impact of the supply chain and consumer sentiment towards supplements, post-pandemic, is causing some issues with the multiples applied or pricing evaluations,” said Steinford. “Sellers who did not exit at the end of the pandemic are struggling to meet the Enterprise Values imagined in 2022. The psychological impact of this reduction in value is causing many who contemplated an exit to delay a while longer until the multiples return, or a consistent Revenue and EBITDA calculation can be achieved.” Supply chain issues lingered longer than expected and inflation spiked pricing, causing more downward pressure on profits and, subsequently multiples and valuations, he added. “While downward price pressures and higher interest rates made the financial investors’ positions more difficult, the silver lining might be the strategics. Smart strategics were able to capitalize on the bespoke organizational marketing trend and the less vibrant PE investor activity. Pharmavite, IFF, ADM and Sanofi are some examples of significant strategic acquisitions post-pandemic.” A break in lending rates will certainly help the investor market, Steinford noted, but it won’t happen overnight. “A single rate cut probably will not have a significant immediate impact on the M&A market,” he said, “but the more rate cuts that occur will likely improve the overall activity of investor firms. Additionally, PE investors are likely to take advantage of lessening inflation and more consistent valuation metrics. Going forward, the valuations will be less impacted by the spikes and drops of recent years caused by the pandemic surge of VMS consumption and profit pressures caused by the resulting supply chain issues and the inflationary economy.” As businesses and investors wait for some rate relief, here’s a look at some of the top deals through the first 7 months of 2024. Stay up to date with all the latest financial deals and other industry news by subscribing to our free newsletter.
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