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In all aspects of health, prevention pays off.
By: Sean Moloughney
May 3, 2022
Earth is home to about 7.8 billion people today. The global population is on course to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, a nearly 24% increase over 2020, according to the Population Reference Bureau’s (PRB) 2021 World Population Data Sheet. Global life expectancy today is 75 years for women and 71 years for men. Notably, the total fertility rate—lifetime births per woman—has dropped globally from 3.2 in 1990 to 2.3 today. Studies have reported significant decreases in U.S. life expectancy during 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which disproportionately affected Hispanic and Black populations. PRB’s most recent fact sheet indicated provisional 2020 data show life expectancy in the U.S. dropped for both sexes—from 81.4 to 80.2 years for women and from 76.3 to 74.5 for men. For perspective, average U.S. life expectancy in 1950 was 68 years, and has risen in large part due to reduction in mortality at older ages. The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to nearly double from 52 million in 2018 to 95 million by 2060, according to a PRB fact sheet from 2019. Aging populations present a growing challenge for governments, healthcare systems, and families. With an aging population comes an increasing need for healthcare, long-term care, and social services to support older adults as they age. For example, aging Baby Boomers could lead to a 50% increase in the number of Americans 65 and older requiring nursing home care—to about 1.9 million in 2030 compared to 1.2 million in 2017. An estimated 90% of adults over age 65 experience one or more chronic conditions, and need specific treatments and medical care. Demand for elder care will also be driven by a steep rise in the number of Americans living with Alzheimer’s disease, which could more than double by 2050 to 13.8 million, from 5.8 million in 2019. A larger share of older adults also means that Social Security and Medicare expenditures will increase from a combined 8.7% of GDP in 2019 to 11.8% by 2050, according to the Social Security Administration’s 2019 annual report. Meanwhile, regardless of age, about 42% of Americans are obese, which is associated with serious and preventable health risks like type 2 diabetes and heart disease.
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